The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast:

June 1st marks the start of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The season runs until November 30th.  This year, the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season will feature an average to slightly below average number of tropical cyclones. However, the overall threat for a Tropical cyclone to make landfall on the United States is greater than in years past. Water temperatures across the equilateral Pacific Ocean continue to warm, as we transition into El Nino from La Nina. Historically, this means less tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean. Looking at the current Sea Surface Temperature anomalies, you can clearly see El Nino building in the equilateral Pacific, while sea surface temperatures across portions of the Atlantic Ocean are below average. This will hinder development of tropical cyclones in the open Atlantic, decreasing the overall number of Atlantic hurricanes. Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico, sea surface temperatures are above average. This will contribute into making the Gulf of Mexico the place to watch for tropical cyclone development. This year, “homegrown” tropical systems will be more common, as conditions are favorable along the Southeastern & Gulf coasts for tropical cyclone development. Summer cold fronts moving across the country can provide moisture, lift and “spin” for tropical disturbances developing in the Gulf of Mexico. This creates a highly favorable environment for tropical cyclone development. Scenarios like this will likely be common off the coast of the Southeast United States & the Gulf of Mexico during the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.  Another major factor contributing to the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast is the Bermuda ridge; the steering force behind most Atlantic tropical cyclones. The Bermuda ridge is a large subtropical area of high pressure typically centered around Bermuda. This ridge steers Atlantic cyclones towards the United States from Africa and the Western Atlantic Ocean. This year, I am anticipating this ridge, along with cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, to suppress tropical cyclone development in the Western Atlantic Ocean. However, placement of the Bermuda ridge this year will likely encourage tropical cyclones to track into the Southeastern United States & Gulf Coasts, making these areas higher at risk than in years past. Meanwhile, further up the coast along the Northeastern United States from Cape May, NJ up to Eastport, ME, the likelihood of a tropical cyclone to make landfall is slightly less than average. This is a result of the Polar jet stream dipping farther south than normal. Arctic high pressure centered around Greenland, and low pressure centered near the southern Hudson Bay will force the Polar jet stream south, reducing the risk of tropical cyclone landfall in the Northeast. However, not too far to the south, along the Mid Atlantic coastline, the risk for a tropical cyclone to make landfall is slightly greater than normal. This is a result of placement of the Bermuda ridge. Just as the Southeast United States is more prone to tropical cyclone landfall this year, so is the Mid Atlantic region. The Mid Atlantic United States coastline is not as high at risk as the Southeastern United States coastline. nonetheless, it is still possible that in mid August to early September, a tropical cyclone tracks into this region.      To conclude I would like to restate in further detail the areas along the United states coastline that are highest at risk for tropical cyclone landfall this year. These areas include: The entire Gulf Coast stretching from the Florida Keys all the way down to the Texas/Mexico border. In this area, I am anticipating tropical cyclone development to be slightly above average. July to September will be this regions most active months. The Southeastern United States is also at greater at risk for tropical cyclone landfall. This region extends from Wilmington, NC down to Miami, FL. In this area, I am anticipating tropical cyclone development to be average. June to September is anticipated to be the most active months for the region. The Mid-Atlantic region has a slightly higher than normal chance for tropical cyclone landfall this year. This area extends from Rehoboth Beach, DE down to the outer banks of North Carolina. In this area, I expect tropical cyclone development to be average to slightly below average. June to September will be the regions most active months. Planning ahead incase of a hurricane or tropical storm greatly reduces the risk of danger to yourself, and your family from these storms. Have an emergency hurricane plan set for you and your family. If you are aware that you live in an area prone to hurricanes and tropical storms, have a hurricane Kit ready, and learn evacuation routes and where emergency shelters are setup incase of an emergency. For more information on how to prepare in advance of a tropical cyclone, please visit this helpful site from the National Weather Service: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/. Thank you for reading The Official 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast written and published by Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather. Have a wonderful season, and remember to stay safe! 

- ©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather