FORECAST DISCUSSION, JANUARY 31ST, 2012 -
Today, Here in Philadelphia, PA the high temperature reached 61˚F. unseasonable warmth has taken over the vast majority of the east coast, and should continue Throughout Thursday. Wednesday, Looks like an area of (weak) low pressure will ride along the southern border of Maine, producing moderate-heavy snow from Rangeley, ME to Bangor, ME north. Some areas could receive 6-8”, While other areas such as Portland, will experience a rain/snow event, with little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday night, a shortwave will ride south of the area, potentially producing a brief period of sleet/rain/snow from D.C.-Philadelphia. No snow accumulations are expected with that system. Sunday, another area of low pressure should move into the area from the midwest. Current modeled guidance is very unreliable at the moment concerning this system, as currently, the storm is a weak wave of low pressure in the Northeastern Pacific. Wednesday’s 12z Model runs should have a better handle on the storm. NOAA is sending a winter weather flight into the storm to collect better data for the GFS. My current ideas go as this; A weakening area of low pressure moves east, and reforms along the coast, but remains too weak for any major accumulations if any at all across the Northeast. I will continue to watch this system over the coming days. But at the moment, it is not much of a threat.
SOI Values dropped again today, Dipping down into -6.21. SOI values have been consistently dropping since January 25th. From +46.03 to today's readings of -6.21. Lower SOI values = Less warmth across the Nation.
On another note, the MJO looks to go into Phase 7, and then potentially Phase 8. The MJO has ben stuck in phases 4, 5, & 6. These phases support much above normal temperatures across the Northeast, and that is what we have been seeing much of since December! This looks to change, into more favorable phases 7, 8 and potentially 1.
GFS 500mb Ensembles continue to show a -NAO & +PNA pattern setting up after the 8th of February. I do NOT expect any major winter storms to impact the I-95 corridor Until the 8th of February. From there on, conditions look much more favorable. As it looks now, i do expect a 2-3 week period of blocking to setup, and produce at least one major winter storm along the east coast. Looking at current modeled trends and history, it looks like this period f blocking will setup between the 8th of February and the 16th. Lets hope, because if the pattern we are in now holds, Expect more of the same. Warmth with translucent cold in the east, with quick hitting systems that put down mostly rain South of I-80.
Thats it for tonight Folks, As usual, i will update you all as details & advancements in the Forecast come about.
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©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather