FORECAST DISCUSSION, JANUARY 31ST, 2012 -
Today, Here in Philadelphia, PA the high temperature reached 61˚F. unseasonable warmth has taken over the vast majority of the east coast, and should continue Throughout Thursday. Wednesday, Looks like an area of (weak) low pressure will ride along the southern border of Maine, producing moderate-heavy snow from Rangeley, ME to Bangor, ME north. Some areas could receive 6-8”, While other areas such as Portland, will experience a rain/snow event, with little or no snow accumulation expected.
Thursday night, a shortwave will ride south of the area, potentially producing a brief period of sleet/rain/snow from D.C.-Philadelphia. No snow accumulations are expected with that system. Sunday, another area of low pressure should move into the area from the midwest. Current modeled guidance is very unreliable at the moment concerning this system, as currently, the storm is a weak wave of low pressure in the Northeastern Pacific. Wednesday’s 12z Model runs should have a better handle on the storm. NOAA is sending a winter weather flight into the storm to collect better data for the GFS. My current ideas go as this; A weakening area of low pressure moves east, and reforms along the coast, but remains too weak for any major accumulations if any at all across the Northeast. I will continue to watch this system over the coming days. But at the moment, it is not much of a threat.
SOI Values dropped again today, Dipping down into -6.21. SOI values have been consistently dropping since January 25th. From +46.03 to today's readings of -6.21. Lower SOI values = Less warmth across the Nation.
On another note, the MJO looks to go into Phase 7, and then potentially Phase 8. The MJO has ben stuck in phases 4, 5, & 6. These phases support much above normal temperatures across the Northeast, and that is what we have been seeing much of since December! This looks to change, into more favorable phases 7, 8 and potentially 1.
GFS 500mb Ensembles continue to show a -NAO & +PNA pattern setting up after the 8th of February. I do NOT expect any major winter storms to impact the I-95 corridor Until the 8th of February. From there on, conditions look much more favorable. As it looks now, i do expect a 2-3 week period of blocking to setup, and produce at least one major winter storm along the east coast. Looking at current modeled trends and history, it looks like this period f blocking will setup between the 8th of February and the 16th. Lets hope, because if the pattern we are in now holds, Expect more of the same. Warmth with translucent cold in the east, with quick hitting systems that put down mostly rain South of I-80.
Thats it for tonight Folks, As usual, i will update you all as details & advancements in the Forecast come about.
~
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Saturday, January 28, 2012
Big change in the pattern coming as we head into February ....
The PV has been stuck in the gulf of alaska since November, that looks to change dramatically. As the PV looks out move out of alaska and into Southeastern Canada.
Along with the NAO. There has been virtually NO persistent high-lattitude blocking over greenland since August! This too looks to change. the ECMWF shows a very negative NAO setting up around the 3rd of February. This is possible....As depicted in the picture, you can clearly see negative heights over greenland (showing a very +NAO) turn to more positive heights (this is signature of a -NAO). Not only over greenland can you see a bug difference in the pattern, but look out over the Pacific. The EOP has been riding very positive recently. that looks to change, as you can clearly see positive heights turn negative. ( A Negative EOP is more favorable for east coast snowstorms). The biggest and perhaps most visible change to the pattern is the break-down of the alaskan vortex. Currently, there are vey negative heights over alaska, and this should continue into at least the first few days of February. Then, a massive change over to very positive heights as a -EPO * +PNA pattern setts in. A lot is still on the table, and this can change, but there are many more signals that point towards at least one major east coast snowstorm in February.The MJO (which has been in phases 5,4,6,) Looks to move out into phases 7,8,1 and potentially 2. These are much more favorable phases for a -NAO to setup, Resulting in more coastal storms. Not only that, but SOI Values continue to plummet, as of the past three days, SOI values have dropped from 46, to 21, to 7! an astonishing drop! (NOTE: Lower SOI Values = Less warmth across the United States.)
Friday, January 27, 2012
FORECAST DISCUSSION - JANUARY 27th, 2012
Heavy rains, Winds & Heavy snows should be out of the region by Saturday. Most if not all of the rain that will fall has fallen in the I-95 corridor. Winds could gust as high as 40mph tonight across the Delaware Valley and portions of the I-95 corridor-West.
NEXT WEEK: Things should remain generally warm across the region, with cold air up across the interior Northeast. Wednesday, looks damp and mild with a low passing to the north of the area. Then on friday, things could get interesting. The ECMWF model guidance wants to take a storm off the coast, with heavy snows to the N & W of I-95. While the GFS keeps the storms separate with generally mild air staying in place. The GFS shows marginal rains south of Hartford, with light-moderate snows to the north. At the moment, i am leaning towards the potential for a (weak) coastal system. High pressure should be to the north, pushing the storm offshore. If the NAO goes negative be next friday (which is possible, but unlikely) then we could very well see an east coast snowstorm. I don’t want to talk about who gets snow and how much, because both the GFS & ECMWF models are extremely unreliable in this time-range. Often, you see big storms 170-192 hours out, that virtually disappear days later. So for now, i will keep an eye on that potential system, but i do remain skeptical.
As we head into the long range (February 5th & Beyond) things are looking more favorable for an east coast snowstorm. I do see a time period between the 8th of February to the 16th or so of February where blocking could setup. If this does pan out, It does seem likely that at least one major east coast storm will hit the Big cities. It is possible that true winter could show itself for a few weeks with snow & cold taking over the eastern part of the country as we progress into February.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Heavy rains, Winds & Heavy snows should be out of the region by Saturday. Most if not all of the rain that will fall has fallen in the I-95 corridor. Winds could gust as high as 40mph tonight across the Delaware Valley and portions of the I-95 corridor-West.
NEXT WEEK: Things should remain generally warm across the region, with cold air up across the interior Northeast. Wednesday, looks damp and mild with a low passing to the north of the area. Then on friday, things could get interesting. The ECMWF model guidance wants to take a storm off the coast, with heavy snows to the N & W of I-95. While the GFS keeps the storms separate with generally mild air staying in place. The GFS shows marginal rains south of Hartford, with light-moderate snows to the north. At the moment, i am leaning towards the potential for a (weak) coastal system. High pressure should be to the north, pushing the storm offshore. If the NAO goes negative be next friday (which is possible, but unlikely) then we could very well see an east coast snowstorm. I don’t want to talk about who gets snow and how much, because both the GFS & ECMWF models are extremely unreliable in this time-range. Often, you see big storms 170-192 hours out, that virtually disappear days later. So for now, i will keep an eye on that potential system, but i do remain skeptical.
As we head into the long range (February 5th & Beyond) things are looking more favorable for an east coast snowstorm. I do see a time period between the 8th of February to the 16th or so of February where blocking could setup. If this does pan out, It does seem likely that at least one major east coast storm will hit the Big cities. It is possible that true winter could show itself for a few weeks with snow & cold taking over the eastern part of the country as we progress into February.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Saturday, January 21, 2012
Thursday, January 19, 2012
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
LONG RANGE TELECONNECTION & PATTERN DISCUSSION: AO Going significantly Negative after the 18th and to remain so for a good portion of February, and possibly march. of January. NAO to go Negative and remain so throughout a good portion of February. PNA to likely go positive to neutral by the 28th of January.
What this all means is: The pattern will change to a more favorable pattern for East coast snowstorms, I am anticipating a block to setup in the last few remaining days of January, and there is some potential for an coastal storm the last few days of January.
I am anticipating this -NAO & -AO pattern to stay with us for at least the first 2-3 weeks of February. At this time, i am unsure as to just how long it will stay around, Bud i do expect 2+ (potentially major) Winter storms to impact generally North of I-70 from this pattern. Between the 29th of January to the 18th of February.
What this all means is: The pattern will change to a more favorable pattern for East coast snowstorms, I am anticipating a block to setup in the last few remaining days of January, and there is some potential for an coastal storm the last few days of January.
I am anticipating this -NAO & -AO pattern to stay with us for at least the first 2-3 weeks of February. At this time, i am unsure as to just how long it will stay around, Bud i do expect 2+ (potentially major) Winter storms to impact generally North of I-70 from this pattern. Between the 29th of January to the 18th of February.
Monday, January 16, 2012
An area of low pressure will develop to our west, spreading precipitation into the region over the next two days. [http://www.facebook.com/
Friday, a Alberta Clipper system will track to the northwest of our region, then re-develop off the coast of Long Island, NY From there, the system should intensify slightly and move NNE. At the moment, this system looks like a marginal event, with isolated amounts of 3"+ In the Eastern New England area.
A second system emerging from the southeast, looks to impact the The Northern Mid-Atlatic. Cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City, could pickup 1-3" from this system. I will continue to monitor it for further updates. Maps will be out later this week concerning Both systems.
As we look into the long range, it looks like a warm shot will impact the Northeast from the 23rd of January to the 26th. It will be noticeably mild during that time period. Current modeled guidance suggests that the warm spell will be short-lived, and much colder air is on deck. All eyes now turn to the last few days of January as the NAO looks to go negative. It i possible that Northeast may see a storm during the last week of January. This is another situation that i will continue to monitor. Overall, January should average out Above-Average for the vast majority of the Northeast. Details on what i think is in store for the first two weeks of February are available below in my Long Range Forecast Discussion [http://www.facebook.com/
Questions? Comments? Please leave in the comment section below.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Friday, a Alberta Clipper system will track to the northwest of our region, then re-develop off the coast of Long Island, NY From there, the system should intensify slightly and move NNE. At the moment, this system looks like a marginal event, with isolated amounts of 3"+ In the Eastern New England area.
A second system emerging from the southeast, looks to impact the The Northern Mid-Atlatic. Cities like Baltimore, Philadelphia, and New York City, could pickup 1-3" from this system. I will continue to monitor it for further updates. Maps will be out later this week concerning Both systems.
As we look into the long range, it looks like a warm shot will impact the Northeast from the 23rd of January to the 26th. It will be noticeably mild during that time period. Current modeled guidance suggests that the warm spell will be short-lived, and much colder air is on deck. All eyes now turn to the last few days of January as the NAO looks to go negative. It i possible that Northeast may see a storm during the last week of January. This is another situation that i will continue to monitor. Overall, January should average out Above-Average for the vast majority of the Northeast. Details on what i think is in store for the first two weeks of February are available below in my Long Range Forecast Discussion [http://www.facebook.com/
Questions? Comments? Please leave in the comment section below.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Sunday, January 15, 2012
LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION - Saturday, January 14th 2012
Good afternoon folks, As many of you have been noticing, this winter so far has been a big bust. very little if any snow for the big cities along the the I-95 corridor, and average-slightly below average snowfall in the interior northeast. I have been anticipating a big change in the weather pattern due in part to SSW event (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) to flip our pattern into a much colder and snowier one. Fortunately the Stratospheric warming did propagate down into the 50mb levels of the atmosphere. In result of this, a massive ridge of warmth will form over the Aleutian islands and western Siberia. From here, I along with many other meteorologists were expecting the Ridge to extend over the polar regions, forcing the AO out of the polar regions and down into southern Canada. The ridge of warmth was then expected to move over greenland, creating a “block”. or a negative NAO. Unfortunately, the ridge will form, and then move west, into Siberia, and dissipate.
This will not affect us in the way that I had originally anticipated. A very deep trough will form in the Pacific Northwest, keeping the cold air locked up there, with Transit cold in the east up until the first week of February.
As far as teleconnections go, i am predicting the PNA (Pacific North American) to remain negative up until at least the first week of February. An Negative PNA will allow a trough in the Pacific Northwest, and is a favorable phase for eastern warmth. The AO (Atlantic Oscillation) should go negative around the 18th of January, then could go either neutral, negative or positive by the end of the month. This particular teleconnection tends to flip around it’s forecast often, and is extremely hard to predict more than 5 days out. The NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation) has been positive since October 18th, and up until recently has gone briefly negative. Currently, Model guidance suggests that the NAO goes back positive after tomorrow, and reaches heights as positive as +1.6 . After the 25th of January, the current modeled Forecast suggests it goes negative. After this time period, I am anticipating the NAO stays negative throughout the majority of February.
What this all means for The rest of January in the Northeast, United States is this; There will be shots of both cold & warm air, but overall in the Northeast, i do expect above average temperatures for the rest of January with Above average precipitation in the interior Northeast and Northern New England with normal to slightly above average precipitation From West Virginia up to Southern Massachusetts. This includes all of the major cities along the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain. As we head into the very last few days of january, the Warm air should start to lose it’s ground, and retreat south as the cold air begins to takeover out weather pattern.
The first week of February could be very interesting, as modeled guidance has been consistent with the idea of a -NAO setting up. This would help us significantly in terms of cold and snow. But this can and will change for better or worse. My current ideas for the First and Second week of February are this; Cold air should be dominate in the Northeast, but we can not rule out the potential for translucent warm shots. I do see the potential for one or two snowstorms either along the coast or up along the interior Northeast. I am currently thinking that the Entire Northeast could see Above average Precipitation and depending upon where the mean storm track sets up, There could be an area of much above average precipitation for that month. I am unsure weather it will be in the Interior or the Coastal Northeast, and details should become clearer over the next few weeks. As far as temperatures go, i am expecting Slightly to Moderately Below average temperatures for an area extending from Eastern West Virginia to The coastal sections of Northern New England. For the interior, I am expecting Moderately below average temperatures west of an area extending from State College, PA up to Caribou, ME. Confidence in the forecast for weeks 1 and 2 of February is around 65%. Things can change for the better or worse.
Well folks, thats it. If you have any questions on the Long Range Forecast Dissuasion, feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
Good afternoon folks, As many of you have been noticing, this winter so far has been a big bust. very little if any snow for the big cities along the the I-95 corridor, and average-slightly below average snowfall in the interior northeast. I have been anticipating a big change in the weather pattern due in part to SSW event (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) to flip our pattern into a much colder and snowier one. Fortunately the Stratospheric warming did propagate down into the 50mb levels of the atmosphere. In result of this, a massive ridge of warmth will form over the Aleutian islands and western Siberia. From here, I along with many other meteorologists were expecting the Ridge to extend over the polar regions, forcing the AO out of the polar regions and down into southern Canada. The ridge of warmth was then expected to move over greenland, creating a “block”. or a negative NAO. Unfortunately, the ridge will form, and then move west, into Siberia, and dissipate.
This will not affect us in the way that I had originally anticipated. A very deep trough will form in the Pacific Northwest, keeping the cold air locked up there, with Transit cold in the east up until the first week of February.
As far as teleconnections go, i am predicting the PNA (Pacific North American) to remain negative up until at least the first week of February. An Negative PNA will allow a trough in the Pacific Northwest, and is a favorable phase for eastern warmth. The AO (Atlantic Oscillation) should go negative around the 18th of January, then could go either neutral, negative or positive by the end of the month. This particular teleconnection tends to flip around it’s forecast often, and is extremely hard to predict more than 5 days out. The NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation) has been positive since October 18th, and up until recently has gone briefly negative. Currently, Model guidance suggests that the NAO goes back positive after tomorrow, and reaches heights as positive as +1.6 . After the 25th of January, the current modeled Forecast suggests it goes negative. After this time period, I am anticipating the NAO stays negative throughout the majority of February.
What this all means for The rest of January in the Northeast, United States is this; There will be shots of both cold & warm air, but overall in the Northeast, i do expect above average temperatures for the rest of January with Above average precipitation in the interior Northeast and Northern New England with normal to slightly above average precipitation From West Virginia up to Southern Massachusetts. This includes all of the major cities along the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain. As we head into the very last few days of january, the Warm air should start to lose it’s ground, and retreat south as the cold air begins to takeover out weather pattern.
The first week of February could be very interesting, as modeled guidance has been consistent with the idea of a -NAO setting up. This would help us significantly in terms of cold and snow. But this can and will change for better or worse. My current ideas for the First and Second week of February are this; Cold air should be dominate in the Northeast, but we can not rule out the potential for translucent warm shots. I do see the potential for one or two snowstorms either along the coast or up along the interior Northeast. I am currently thinking that the Entire Northeast could see Above average Precipitation and depending upon where the mean storm track sets up, There could be an area of much above average precipitation for that month. I am unsure weather it will be in the Interior or the Coastal Northeast, and details should become clearer over the next few weeks. As far as temperatures go, i am expecting Slightly to Moderately Below average temperatures for an area extending from Eastern West Virginia to The coastal sections of Northern New England. For the interior, I am expecting Moderately below average temperatures west of an area extending from State College, PA up to Caribou, ME. Confidence in the forecast for weeks 1 and 2 of February is around 65%. Things can change for the better or worse.
Well folks, thats it. If you have any questions on the Long Range Forecast Dissuasion, feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather
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