FORECAST DISCUSSION - JANUARY 27th, 2012

Heavy rains, Winds & Heavy snows should be out of the region by Saturday. Most if not all of the rain that will fall has fallen in the I-95 corridor. Winds could gust as high as 40mph tonight across the Delaware Valley and portions of the I-95 corridor-West. 
NEXT WEEK: Things should remain generally warm across the region, with cold air up across the interior Northeast. Wednesday, looks damp and mild with a low passing to the north of the area. Then on friday, things could get interesting. The ECMWF model guidance wants to take a storm off the coast, with heavy snows to the N & W of I-95. While the GFS keeps the storms separate with generally mild air staying in place. The GFS shows marginal rains south of Hartford, with light-moderate snows to the north. At the moment, i am leaning towards the potential for a (weak) coastal system. High pressure should be to the north, pushing the storm offshore. If the NAO goes negative be next friday (which is possible, but unlikely) then we could very well see an east coast snowstorm. I don’t want to talk about who gets snow and how much, because both the GFS & ECMWF models are extremely unreliable in this time-range. Often, you see big storms 170-192 hours out, that virtually disappear days later. So for now, i will keep an eye on that potential system, but i do remain skeptical.
As we head into the long range (February 5th & Beyond) things are looking more favorable for an east coast snowstorm. I do see a time period between the 8th of February to the 16th or so of February where blocking could setup. If this does pan out, It does seem likely that at least one major east coast storm will hit the Big cities. It is possible that true winter could show itself for a few weeks with snow & cold taking over the eastern part of the country as we progress into February.

©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather