LONG RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION - Saturday, January 14th 2012
Good afternoon folks, As many of you have been noticing, this winter so far has been a big bust. very little if any snow for the big cities along the the I-95 corridor, and average-slightly below average snowfall in the interior northeast. I have been anticipating a big change in the weather pattern due in part to SSW event (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) to flip our pattern into a much colder and snowier one. Fortunately the Stratospheric warming did propagate down into the 50mb levels of the atmosphere. In result of this, a massive ridge of warmth will form over the Aleutian islands and western Siberia. From here, I along with many other meteorologists were expecting the Ridge to extend over the polar regions, forcing the AO out of the polar regions and down into southern Canada. The ridge of warmth was then expected to move over greenland, creating a “block”. or a negative NAO. Unfortunately, the ridge will form, and then move west, into Siberia, and dissipate.
This will not affect us in the way that I had originally anticipated. A very deep trough will form in the Pacific Northwest, keeping the cold air locked up there, with Transit cold in the east up until the first week of February. 
As far as teleconnections go, i am predicting the PNA (Pacific North American) to remain negative up until at least the first week of February. An Negative PNA will allow a trough in the Pacific Northwest, and is a favorable phase for eastern warmth. The AO (Atlantic Oscillation) should go negative around the 18th of January, then could go either neutral, negative or positive by the end of the month. This particular teleconnection tends to flip around it’s forecast often, and is extremely hard to predict more than 5 days out. The NAO (Northern Atlantic Oscillation) has been positive since October 18th, and up until recently has gone briefly negative. Currently, Model guidance suggests that the NAO goes back positive after tomorrow, and reaches heights as positive as +1.6 . After the 25th of January, the current modeled Forecast suggests it goes negative. After this time period, I am anticipating the NAO stays negative throughout the majority of February. 
What this all means for The rest of January in the Northeast, United States is this; There will be shots of both cold & warm air, but overall in the Northeast, i do expect above average temperatures for the rest of January with Above average precipitation in the interior Northeast and Northern New England with normal to slightly above average precipitation From West Virginia up to Southern Massachusetts. This includes all of the major cities along the I-95 corridor and the Coastal Plain. As we head into the very last few days of january, the Warm air should start to lose it’s ground, and retreat south as the cold air begins to takeover out weather pattern. 
The first week of February could be very interesting, as modeled guidance has been consistent with the idea of a -NAO setting up. This would help us significantly in terms of cold and snow. But this can and will change for better or worse. My current ideas for the First and Second week of February are this; Cold air should be dominate in the Northeast, but we can not rule out the potential for translucent warm shots. I do see the potential for one or two snowstorms either along the coast or up along the interior Northeast. I am currently thinking that the Entire Northeast could see Above average Precipitation and depending upon where the mean storm track sets up, There could be an area of much above average precipitation for that month. I am unsure weather it will be in the Interior or the Coastal Northeast, and details should become clearer over the next few weeks. As far as temperatures go, i am expecting Slightly to Moderately Below average temperatures for an area extending from Eastern West Virginia to The coastal sections of Northern New England. For the interior, I am expecting Moderately below average temperatures west of an area extending from State College, PA up to Caribou, ME. Confidence in the forecast for weeks 1 and 2 of February is around 65%. Things can change for the better or worse. 
Well folks, thats it. If you have any questions on the Long Range Forecast Dissuasion, feel free to ask them in the comment section below.
©Sam Ebby of Northeast Weather