Saturday, January 28, 2012



Big change in the pattern coming as we head into February .... 
The PV has been stuck in the gulf of alaska since November, that looks to change dramatically. As the PV looks out move out of alaska and into Southeastern Canada. 
Along with the NAO. There has been virtually NO persistent  high-lattitude blocking over greenland since August! This too looks to change. the ECMWF shows a very negative NAO setting up around the 3rd of February. This is possible....As depicted in the picture, you can clearly see negative heights over greenland (showing a very +NAO) turn to more positive heights (this is  signature of a -NAO). Not only over greenland can you see a bug difference in the pattern, but look out over the Pacific. The EOP has been riding very positive recently. that looks to change, as you can clearly see positive heights turn negative. ( A Negative EOP is more favorable for east coast snowstorms). The biggest and perhaps most visible change to the pattern is the break-down of the alaskan vortex. Currently, there are vey negative heights over alaska, and this should continue into at least the first few days of February. Then, a massive change over to very positive heights as a -EPO * +PNA pattern setts in. A lot is still on the table, and this can change, but there are many more signals that point towards at least one major east coast snowstorm in February.The MJO (which has been in phases 5,4,6,) Looks to move out into phases 7,8,1 and potentially 2. These are much more favorable phases for a -NAO to setup, Resulting in more coastal storms. Not only that, but SOI Values continue to plummet, as of the past three days, SOI values have dropped from 46, to 21, to 7! an astonishing drop! (NOTE: Lower SOI Values = Less warmth across the United States.) 



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